Saturday, January 11, 2014

Tanking a season???



You will know if Bulls management is dumping salary and trying to tank the season by one indicator - trading Mike Dunleavy.  If they trade Hinrich, it doesn't mean they're tanking.  If they amnesty Boozer at the end of the season, it won't mean they're rebuilding.  The trade of Deng didn't mean they are tanking the season.

There are sound reasons for trading Deng, in my opinion.  The first is that he wasn't going to be resigned next year for more than three years and ten million per year.  That was the Bulls' take-it-or-leave-it offer, according to Deng, and I believe him.  It was a line in the sand, and they had already determined that they weren't willing to cross it.  It wasn't going to be 12 million for 4 years, it wasn't going to be 4 years at 45 or 46 million.  It was 3 years, 10 million per year.  Since they had now determined that they weren't going to exceed that number, and Deng refused it, they decided to part ways now.  Why now instead of at the end of the season?   Because at least they got SOMETHING for him.  A first round pick and two second round picks.  Is it enough for half a season of an all-star small forward?  Probably not, but it's what the league was willing to pay.  And it's something.

And the other thing they got was luxury tax relief.  By waiving Bynum, they put themselves under the luxury tax threshold for this year.  It seems like a given that owner Jerry Reinsdorf will go into luxury tax territory with the payroll, but not for a team that isn't going to contend to win it all, and not for a player who wasn't going to be here next year.  So the team saves money on that end, too.

Trading Hinrich is not a "tank" move either, in my opinion.  There are point guards who can give them some of what Hinrich can give them.  D.J. Augustine is on the team and seems to be fitting in.  He's a backup next year anyway.  If Hinrich can allow them to accumulate assets (draft picks) and cap space, then trading him makes sense for next year.

So why would the trade of Mike Dunleavy signal, for me, salary dump and tanking the season?  Because of these reasons:  First, Dunleavy is not expensive and is signed for two years.  Okay, neither is Hinrich THAT expensive.  So what's the difference if Dunleavy allows them to gain cap space and maybe gets them a young project player or a draft pick?

This is the difference.  Every year the Bulls have to go looking for a three point shooter.  Korver, Bellinelli, and now Dunleavy.  Korver was very good, but so is Dunleavy.  He's a piece they NEED on next year's team.  That's the second, and main, reason why they should keep him, and why trading him would be nothing but dumping salary and tanking this season.

Let me say that again.  Dunleavy is a piece that they NEED on next year's team.  If they get rid of him for draft picks, they will have to go looking to sign someone with his skills next year for probably about the same amount of money.

Now I don't claim to know the ins and outs of the convoluted salary cap in the NBA, but I can't imagine that keeping Dunleavy through his contract would affect their ability to sign someone next year.  The difference between OJ Mayo and LeBron James, for example.  Because that's the kind of difference the Bulls really need.  (Not specifically those players, but that sort of talent gap.)  And I can't imagine that trading him will bring an asset that will be more valuable to next year's team than Dunleavy himself will be, with Rose back.

Keep Mike Dunleavy!

*****

Please check out my book DOING DISNEY for Amazon Kindle.  It's priced at $2.99!

*****

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Deng traded to Cleveland.

Let the hand-wringing and the second-guessing begin - Luol Deng, a Bull for about 10 years, has been dealt for draft picks and luxury tax relief to the Cleveland Cavs.

If I have it right, the Bull get the Sacramento Kings' first round pick, which is either top ten or top twelve protected in the 2014 draft, they get two Portland 2nd round picks, they get the right to swap draft positions with Cleveland in the 2015 draft, and they got Andrew Bynum, whose non-guaranteed contract was waived before it became guaranteed, thus getting the Bulls under the luxury tax threshold and saving them a bunch of bucks.

(Owners like Reinsdorf don't mind going into luxury tax territory for a contending team, but that doesn't describe this Bulls team.)

Next, Boozer will probably be amnestied after the season, leaving the team without their Duke frontcourt.  Does it make them a worse team this year?  Yes, certainly...hopefully bad enough to be in the lottery.  Does it make them worse next year?  That remains to be seen.

Taj Gibson isn't an elite starting power forward, but he's decent, and certainly as good as Boozer at this point.  Jimmy Butler isn't a polished small forward, but he has a high ceiling and the work ethic to reach it.  He'll be different than Deng, but maybe he'll develop into a third option.  Tony Snell is probably not the answer at shooting guard, but he may be a valuable bench player in the near future, and getting bigger minutes this year can only help his development.

If I was GM, I would consider trading Hinrich, but I would probably keep Dunleavy and Noah.  Why keep Dunleavy?  Because every darned year the Bulls are out there looking for a free agent three point shooter, and they have Dunleavy locked up for another year at a reasonable salary, so why get rid of him just to have to find "him" again?

I'd keep Noah because he's good defensively and works very hard.  He's a solid NBA post man, who needs a quality backup.

So next year I'd be looking at Rose, Butler, Gibson and Noah.  Who's my starting two guard?  Hopefully it's a marquise free agent who can score.  Without Deng and Boozer, they'll have the money to sign a top guy.

Yes, the Bulls have no track record of landing big free agents.  Didn't land any back in the Krause era, and didn't land the big guys in the Lebron season.  (Isn't Lebron a free agent again after this season?  He could opt out or something like that if he wants to...?)  But if Rose will do a little recruiting, and if Paxson can pay the most, maybe he'll end up with one this time.  He only needs one.  Then bring the Euro power forward Miretich over, and you have a pretty solid team.  Better than this year's team.

Bring back Augustine or bring in a guy like Nate Robinson again to back up the point, and find a solid post player behind Noah (someone better than Mohammed) and maybe this team DOES contend for the East again.

I'm willing to see what happens, because I lost faith that anything was going to happen with the Deng/Boozer version of the Bulls.

*****

Please take a look at my book DOING DISNEY available for Amazon Kindle for $2.99!

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Monday, January 6, 2014

My ebook DOING DISNEY is out!!!


I'm very happy to announce that my e-book, DOING DISNEY!  HOW TO SPEND A WEEK AT DISNEY'S FLORIDA RESORT, is live on Amazon in the Kindle Store.

It is approximately 101 pages and is priced at $2.99.

Here's my description of it:


DOING DISNEY is a guidebook written for people who visit Florida's theme parks in the same manner as the author - a week or so at a time every couple of years. It's a book of ideas and comments about what the author has found to be worth experiencing (both attractions and dining). It is NOT a comprehensive guidebook full of every fact and figure about the resort. Part travelogue, part diary, part instructional, it tries to be informative and entertaining while providing a look into what works for a family traveling to visit Walt Disney World.
BUY IT HERE!

Or download the sample first, to read the introduction and perhaps get a feel for how it's written.

Thanks in advance!!!


(on the off-chance that someone who might look in here might be interested in Disney...)



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