What it's going to be, I don't really have a clue...but I have this feeling that something is going to go counter to the conventional wisdom - there is going to be a big surprise.
Two weeks ago it would have been a surprise to suggest that the big 3 from Miami were going to do anything other than resign with the Heat. Now it looks like that team might be broken into a few pieces as Bosh decides whether to take the max offer from Houston and King James decides whether to go home to Cleveland, which seems to be where his heart still is. (Remember a few weeks ago when his wife tweeted something about coming home and it being "real"? Maybe she knew something after all, huh?)
Or will Carmelo join James in Miami once Bosh is gone? It won't be max money but it will still be more than my Bulls can offer.
Will Phil Jackson suddenly call the Bulls and say, "Hey, we'll take Boozer, Butler and Dunleavy in a sign-and-trade for Anthony, if you toss in a couple of future first rounders"? Nah, that ain't gonna happen.
Suddenly I'm wondering where the chips will actually fall for the Bulls. Their team is the one place I don't see anything strange or unexpected or really exciting happening. I think that after Anthony says "No thanks, I'd rather have the extra 50 million," the Bulls will sign Nikola Mirotic and a few other pieces and hope that the breakup of the Heat opens things up for them to win the East next year.
But I think we're going to see something strange and unexpected happening, whether it be Anthony joining the Heat or James going to Cleveland.
Wouldn't it be interesting if the Bulls suddenly announce that they've come to terms with, oh, say, Dwayne Wade?
It wouldn't completely surprise me, but on the other hand, I think it's more likely that they announce that they've come to terms with Trevor Ariza and a few other of those veteran minimum types.
*****
Showing posts with label Carmelo Anthony. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carmelo Anthony. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Tuesday, July 8, 2014
Bulls' Options Clarifying...
Free agency has begun and it's beginning to look a lot like every other major free agent year for our Bulls.
Oh, there are differences. In those other years the Bulls were fully capable of offering max contracts. Two, actually, in 2000, I believe, and at least one and a half in 2010. In both years the top free agents (Hill, McGrady, Eddie Jones in 2000, James, Bosh and Wade in 2010) spurned the Bulls' offers. In 2000 they ended up here and there; I think Hill and McGrady both went to Orlando and Jones...well, who remembers? In 2010 they all went to the same team - the Heat.
In 2014, the Bulls can NOT offer a max contract. In fact, after they "amnesty" Carlos Boozer, they'll have about 11 million or so, if I heard correctly (or if what I heard was correct). If Carmelo Anthony signed here without the deal being a sign-and-trade, he would be leaving some 50 million dollars on the table.
So in the end, we're not going to watch Carmelo light it up in a Bulls uni next year.
Option two seems to be bringing the European kid Mirotic over here and signing a tier two free agent. Is that enough to win it? Well, we don't know how good Mirotic will be in the NBA. In fact, we don't know if he'll be ANY good at all. Is he Hedo Turkoglu? Is he Dirk Nowitski? Is he Toni Kukoc? One analyst stated that he would probably have been the #4 pick in this year's NBA draft if he was just becoming available now. That's good, but what does it do for us next year? Does it make us a contender for the title, or just a better team?
Option two also seems to possibly involve trying to bring Pau Gasol in for a couple years. Might make some sense if he isn't too expensive.
So the front line would be a combination of Noah, Gasol, Gibson, and Mirotic. Doug McDermott, their first round pick (taken at #11 by Denver then traded for by the Bulls) would be the designated shooter. I'm assuming Mike Dunleavy is history (though I liked him a lot last year). Rose would be the point guard, Jimmy Butler would presumably be the swing 2/3, and there might be a couple other bench types that they'd work to bring in. I heard Shawn Marion mentioned. I also heard Trevor Ariza mentioned.
That sounds like it would be a good team. Still doesn't have that elite scorer, unless Mirotic becomes GREAT. Possible, but hard to count on.
We might know something by the end of the week. More to come...
*****
Oh, there are differences. In those other years the Bulls were fully capable of offering max contracts. Two, actually, in 2000, I believe, and at least one and a half in 2010. In both years the top free agents (Hill, McGrady, Eddie Jones in 2000, James, Bosh and Wade in 2010) spurned the Bulls' offers. In 2000 they ended up here and there; I think Hill and McGrady both went to Orlando and Jones...well, who remembers? In 2010 they all went to the same team - the Heat.
In 2014, the Bulls can NOT offer a max contract. In fact, after they "amnesty" Carlos Boozer, they'll have about 11 million or so, if I heard correctly (or if what I heard was correct). If Carmelo Anthony signed here without the deal being a sign-and-trade, he would be leaving some 50 million dollars on the table.
So in the end, we're not going to watch Carmelo light it up in a Bulls uni next year.
Option two seems to be bringing the European kid Mirotic over here and signing a tier two free agent. Is that enough to win it? Well, we don't know how good Mirotic will be in the NBA. In fact, we don't know if he'll be ANY good at all. Is he Hedo Turkoglu? Is he Dirk Nowitski? Is he Toni Kukoc? One analyst stated that he would probably have been the #4 pick in this year's NBA draft if he was just becoming available now. That's good, but what does it do for us next year? Does it make us a contender for the title, or just a better team?
Option two also seems to possibly involve trying to bring Pau Gasol in for a couple years. Might make some sense if he isn't too expensive.
So the front line would be a combination of Noah, Gasol, Gibson, and Mirotic. Doug McDermott, their first round pick (taken at #11 by Denver then traded for by the Bulls) would be the designated shooter. I'm assuming Mike Dunleavy is history (though I liked him a lot last year). Rose would be the point guard, Jimmy Butler would presumably be the swing 2/3, and there might be a couple other bench types that they'd work to bring in. I heard Shawn Marion mentioned. I also heard Trevor Ariza mentioned.
That sounds like it would be a good team. Still doesn't have that elite scorer, unless Mirotic becomes GREAT. Possible, but hard to count on.
We might know something by the end of the week. More to come...
*****
Monday, June 30, 2014
Chicago Bulls - which direction should they take?
So here are the Bulls, sitting with the potential to get about 11 million under the cap if they "amnesty" Carlos Boozer. They had a good draft, getting the guy who many thought would fit best with their roster no matter what - Doug McDermott from Creighton. They also got a power forward from New Mexico with the second pick (number 49), a senior with decent numbers.
Here's the key pieces on their current roster:
So what do they do? Do they try to trade for Kevin Love, perhaps moving Taj Gibson and Tony Snell or even Jimmy Butler while amnesty-ing Boozer to get under the cap enough to make the deal work?
Do they try to sign Carmelo Anthony, maybe doing a sign-and-trade with the Knicks and dealing Butler and Dunleavy while amnesty-ing Boozer?
Do they make a move to bring over Nikolai Mirotic, the kid playing in Spain (I think?) who it will cost big money in terms of a buy-out of his European contract and his salary?
What would I do?
I would try my darnedest to sign Anthony. I thought that they could maybe do a sign-and-trade with Boozer, since his contract is expiring next year and he's not a bad player, just not worth 16+ million a year. It would seem that if they could do that, they could easily accomodate Anthony's big contract. Otherwise he's going to have to take a pay cut.
An acquaintance who played pro ball overseas says that, as an observer and someone who understands the game pretty well, he feels Love would be the best move. He would give them the superstar they need to go with Rose and Noah (assuming Rose comes all the way back). If they do that, their lineup would be Rose, Noah, Love, maybe Dunleavy, maybe Butler, maybe Ronnie Brewer. There's a big three but is there anything beyond that?
Another acquaintance who also played pro ball and major college ball suggests that Anthony is the right move. Assuming they'd have to deal Gibson, their lineup might be Rose, Snell or Butler, Anthony, Randolph (the kid they got from Denver) and Noah. There's a big three with plenty of scoring but again, is there ENOUGH beyond that?
Tonight's the night. Free agency opens and Anthony is meeting first with Chicago. Hope we get him somehow.
*****
Here's the key pieces on their current roster:
- Derrick Rose - coming off two seasons off due to injuries to both knees
- Taj Gibson - power forward who really came on in 2013-2014
- Joakim Noah - center who I should have listed one spot higher - double double machine
- Jimmy Butler - swing man who can play big guard or small forward, good defensively
- Mike Dunleavy - swing man who can hit threes and do more
- Carlos Boozer - power forward with below average to average defensive presence
- Kirk Hinrich - may be a free agent at point guard
- D.J. Augustine - another free agent at point guard
- Tony Snell - rookie swing man with promise
- Jimmer Fredette - possible free agent shooting guard who can, well, shoot
- Greg Smith - forward/center who held up the end of the bench at the end of the season
- Cameron Bairstow - power forward rookie second rounder
- Anthony Randolph - power forward obtained in the pick swap with Denver in the draft
- Ronnie Brewer - free agent signed at end of year for playoffs then not used
- Lou Amundsen - forward and that's all I know
- Mike James - another filler player, point guard who Thibs likes
- Nazr Mohammed - center who has to be close to done, not used much last year
So what do they do? Do they try to trade for Kevin Love, perhaps moving Taj Gibson and Tony Snell or even Jimmy Butler while amnesty-ing Boozer to get under the cap enough to make the deal work?
Do they try to sign Carmelo Anthony, maybe doing a sign-and-trade with the Knicks and dealing Butler and Dunleavy while amnesty-ing Boozer?
Do they make a move to bring over Nikolai Mirotic, the kid playing in Spain (I think?) who it will cost big money in terms of a buy-out of his European contract and his salary?
What would I do?
I would try my darnedest to sign Anthony. I thought that they could maybe do a sign-and-trade with Boozer, since his contract is expiring next year and he's not a bad player, just not worth 16+ million a year. It would seem that if they could do that, they could easily accomodate Anthony's big contract. Otherwise he's going to have to take a pay cut.
An acquaintance who played pro ball overseas says that, as an observer and someone who understands the game pretty well, he feels Love would be the best move. He would give them the superstar they need to go with Rose and Noah (assuming Rose comes all the way back). If they do that, their lineup would be Rose, Noah, Love, maybe Dunleavy, maybe Butler, maybe Ronnie Brewer. There's a big three but is there anything beyond that?
Another acquaintance who also played pro ball and major college ball suggests that Anthony is the right move. Assuming they'd have to deal Gibson, their lineup might be Rose, Snell or Butler, Anthony, Randolph (the kid they got from Denver) and Noah. There's a big three with plenty of scoring but again, is there ENOUGH beyond that?
Tonight's the night. Free agency opens and Anthony is meeting first with Chicago. Hope we get him somehow.
*****
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Bulls' Post-season Over...
So another first round exit for our Chicago Bulls, going down 4-1 vs the Washington Wizards. Yeah, those guys who were laughingstocks of the league not long ago, and for a while, too. To be fair, the Wizards have talented players like Wall, Ariza, Biel (Beal?), and Nene, and the Bulls couldn't keep up with their scoring ability and their aggressiveness.
But the Bulls looked, well, tired. They couldn't start well, and they didn't look like they had enough energy to mount the comebacks that they needed in almost every game.
Why is that? This team had the best record in the NBA in the second half of the season. Could it be that Thibs is pushing them too hard? I think that's a reasonable question. His rotations are too short by at least two players in the regular season, sometimes only playing 6 or 7 players (maybe 8) when perhaps he should be spreading out minutes between 9 or 10 players. Not only would it give more rest to the go-to guys, but it would also give those other guys meaningful minutes in game situations and allow the team to find out if they have something (or nothing). Jimmer Fredette? Could barely get on the floor. Ronnie Brewer? Why even bother?
He played Hinrich, Dunleavy, Butler, Boozer, Noah, Gibson, and Augustine too much, I think.
They are certainly his best seven players. But even Boozer was left out in crunch time, those minutes going the Gibson.
Thibs' biggest problem seems to be his inflexibility. That may also be his biggest strength. But if winning every game in the regular season (or playing to win every game, which is virtually the same thing) costs them their legs come playoff time, something's gotta be done. I'm sure no one wants to tell him how to coach, but someone better make him see that you can't sacrifice offense all the time in order to keep your best defensive unit on the floor for most of the game.
It will be interesting to see how this off-season plays out. With Rose coming back and the ability to amnesty Boozer, is there anyone out there who can make the difference between a first round exit and competing for the title? Besides Carmelo, that is, who apparently would have to take significantly less money to come to Chicago without a sign-and-trade, and I'd guess that New York doesn't want Boozer in such a deal (even though his contract is up after this year).
*****
Take a look at my short stories, available on Amazon for $0.99 each...price will go up a bit soon...
Rick's Rules
Night Family
Dead Or Alive
Thank you!
*****
But the Bulls looked, well, tired. They couldn't start well, and they didn't look like they had enough energy to mount the comebacks that they needed in almost every game.
Why is that? This team had the best record in the NBA in the second half of the season. Could it be that Thibs is pushing them too hard? I think that's a reasonable question. His rotations are too short by at least two players in the regular season, sometimes only playing 6 or 7 players (maybe 8) when perhaps he should be spreading out minutes between 9 or 10 players. Not only would it give more rest to the go-to guys, but it would also give those other guys meaningful minutes in game situations and allow the team to find out if they have something (or nothing). Jimmer Fredette? Could barely get on the floor. Ronnie Brewer? Why even bother?
He played Hinrich, Dunleavy, Butler, Boozer, Noah, Gibson, and Augustine too much, I think.
They are certainly his best seven players. But even Boozer was left out in crunch time, those minutes going the Gibson.
Thibs' biggest problem seems to be his inflexibility. That may also be his biggest strength. But if winning every game in the regular season (or playing to win every game, which is virtually the same thing) costs them their legs come playoff time, something's gotta be done. I'm sure no one wants to tell him how to coach, but someone better make him see that you can't sacrifice offense all the time in order to keep your best defensive unit on the floor for most of the game.
It will be interesting to see how this off-season plays out. With Rose coming back and the ability to amnesty Boozer, is there anyone out there who can make the difference between a first round exit and competing for the title? Besides Carmelo, that is, who apparently would have to take significantly less money to come to Chicago without a sign-and-trade, and I'd guess that New York doesn't want Boozer in such a deal (even though his contract is up after this year).
*****
Take a look at my short stories, available on Amazon for $0.99 each...price will go up a bit soon...
Rick's Rules
Night Family
Dead Or Alive
Thank you!
*****
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Carmelo as a Bull - Good idea?
Okay, I know...this is probably off the table now that Phil Jackson has agreed to run the Knicks as their president and has endorsed the idea of committing to Carmelo Anthony. Phil knows how to win, and he knows how to work with star players. He's got 11 rings as a coach, and 2 as a player. If I had to bet money on the outcome, I'd bet that Anthony will stay with the Knicks, where he can earn the most money in the biggest market, and take a chance on Phil turning things around for that franchise.
But what if Phil is blowing smoke? What if when Phil says that he believes that Carmelo can help the team, he means that Carmelo can help the team by being dealt in a sign-and-trade? And who has what it would take to make that sort of a deal? Who has assets that might just help the Knicks rebuild this year and in the future? Or what if Carmelo looks at the picture in the short term and says, "There is no way we're going to compete next year...and probably not the year after either. Not with as bad as the Knicks look and as capped out as they are."
What if either one of those things is the real truth? I submit that the Bulls are one of, and maybe the only team that makes sense to make a move for Anthony, from both the Bulls' and Knicks' points of view.
For the Bulls, is Anthony a fit? I don't know...but I do know that this Bulls team as it is currently constituted is not going to win an NBA championship. So let's say they amnesty Boozer and they have the cap room for a really good player (which should be the case). Who is that player? After Anthony, who is the next best free agent? Well, it looks to me like it is probably...wait for it...
Luol Deng!
Here's one list of free agents for 2014: Sports Illustrated List
Notice that most of the free agents above #10 (Deng's position) are centers and power forwards. Also note that many of them (Lebron, Bosh, Wade, Duncan, Nowitski, Kobe, and even Anthony) are likely to resign with their own teams. Pao Gasol and Zach Randolph make some sense for the Bulls (especially Randolph, if they do indeed amnesty Boozer) but their real need is for a scorer at either shooting guard or small forward. Anthony is the only one on that list before Deng who fits that role, and might possibly be available in a sign-and-trade.
Does Anthony make the Bulls a championship contender? I think he does. But if he doesn't, so what? No one else, either free agent or draft pick (outside of maybe Parker or Wiggins or a couple of others who will be long gone when the Bulls draft) makes the Bulls a contender. Anthony provides what the Bulls need - scoring. With Derrick Rose (even if he isn't as good as he used to be), and a supporting cast including Noah and Gibson, and whatever is left that the Bulls don't trade to the Knicks to get Anthony, it's a Bulls team that can go deeper in the playoffs. They have their secret weapon as well - coach Thibodeaux. (I'm probably spelling that wrong.)
So why would it make sense for the Knicks? The biggest asset they'd get in the deal would be Boozer and his 16 million dollar expiring contract. Assuming Anthony's max deal with the Knicks is 130 million over 5 years (a figure I heard on the radio this morning, but I'd previously heard 23 million a year over 6 years), that means the Bulls have to match 26 million a year. Boozer accounts for 16 million of that amount. 10 million to go.
What would the Knicks want? I'd think they want a young player. Butler, probably. Butler's valuable to the Bulls but not indispensable, and Anthony is going to be the starting "3". I don't know what he makes but it can't be too much. So what else goes east? Could they sign-and-trade Hinrich to a team-friendly deal that would make him very attractive to the Knicks, who could use veteran leadership at the point? Or could they decide that Jimmer Fredette is their three-point shooter and deal Mike Dunleavy? I think his contract is about 5 million a year. Let's just guess-timate that Butler is around 3 million. That brings us to 24 million. Two to go. I'm positive that they'd want the Bulls' pick. I'd rather trade both Bulls' first rounders (2014 and 2015) if that's possible. I know there's a league rule about dealing successive first round picks, but I don't know if it applies when you also have other teams' first round picks. If it does, then keep the 2015 pick and send them the pick they got for Deng (the Kings' pick, I believe, protected this year but not next?). I think all the Bulls have to do is find another million dollars in salary to deal. I'm sure it could be done. That's if the Bulls have to match 26 million. If it's 23 million, it's a little easier.
The key is Boozer. Does he work for the Knicks, who will also have Stoudamire under contract? I think it does. First, Boozer is expiring after next season. Second, Boozer is a good player (if not a great player, and if not worth the big contract the Bulls gave him), and Stoudamire can swing between center and power forward. Butler replaces Anthony, and Hinrich gives them veteran leadership for a couple of years. Or Dunleavy gives them a year of a solid small forward and three point shooter. And they get some young players with not-too-low draft picks. Would that work for someone like Phil Jackson and the Knicks?
So is this likely? I doubt it. Like I said earlier, I'd bet that Anthony will stay in New York and the Bulls will have to find somewhere else to spend the money. Maybe they don't amnesty Boozer, maybe they bring Mirotic over and draft a couple of more pieces and see what they have in Rose. Maybe they make a run at Paul Pierce or something like that. There are options.
But none of those options lead to a Bulls championship next year, in my opinion. The only scenario where I see a championship in the picture is one where they get Carmelo Anthony.
*****
You can find my short story NIGHT FAMILY on Amazon!
You can also find another of my short stories DEAD OR ALIVE on Amazon!
*****
But what if Phil is blowing smoke? What if when Phil says that he believes that Carmelo can help the team, he means that Carmelo can help the team by being dealt in a sign-and-trade? And who has what it would take to make that sort of a deal? Who has assets that might just help the Knicks rebuild this year and in the future? Or what if Carmelo looks at the picture in the short term and says, "There is no way we're going to compete next year...and probably not the year after either. Not with as bad as the Knicks look and as capped out as they are."
What if either one of those things is the real truth? I submit that the Bulls are one of, and maybe the only team that makes sense to make a move for Anthony, from both the Bulls' and Knicks' points of view.
For the Bulls, is Anthony a fit? I don't know...but I do know that this Bulls team as it is currently constituted is not going to win an NBA championship. So let's say they amnesty Boozer and they have the cap room for a really good player (which should be the case). Who is that player? After Anthony, who is the next best free agent? Well, it looks to me like it is probably...wait for it...
Luol Deng!
Here's one list of free agents for 2014: Sports Illustrated List
Notice that most of the free agents above #10 (Deng's position) are centers and power forwards. Also note that many of them (Lebron, Bosh, Wade, Duncan, Nowitski, Kobe, and even Anthony) are likely to resign with their own teams. Pao Gasol and Zach Randolph make some sense for the Bulls (especially Randolph, if they do indeed amnesty Boozer) but their real need is for a scorer at either shooting guard or small forward. Anthony is the only one on that list before Deng who fits that role, and might possibly be available in a sign-and-trade.
Does Anthony make the Bulls a championship contender? I think he does. But if he doesn't, so what? No one else, either free agent or draft pick (outside of maybe Parker or Wiggins or a couple of others who will be long gone when the Bulls draft) makes the Bulls a contender. Anthony provides what the Bulls need - scoring. With Derrick Rose (even if he isn't as good as he used to be), and a supporting cast including Noah and Gibson, and whatever is left that the Bulls don't trade to the Knicks to get Anthony, it's a Bulls team that can go deeper in the playoffs. They have their secret weapon as well - coach Thibodeaux. (I'm probably spelling that wrong.)
So why would it make sense for the Knicks? The biggest asset they'd get in the deal would be Boozer and his 16 million dollar expiring contract. Assuming Anthony's max deal with the Knicks is 130 million over 5 years (a figure I heard on the radio this morning, but I'd previously heard 23 million a year over 6 years), that means the Bulls have to match 26 million a year. Boozer accounts for 16 million of that amount. 10 million to go.
What would the Knicks want? I'd think they want a young player. Butler, probably. Butler's valuable to the Bulls but not indispensable, and Anthony is going to be the starting "3". I don't know what he makes but it can't be too much. So what else goes east? Could they sign-and-trade Hinrich to a team-friendly deal that would make him very attractive to the Knicks, who could use veteran leadership at the point? Or could they decide that Jimmer Fredette is their three-point shooter and deal Mike Dunleavy? I think his contract is about 5 million a year. Let's just guess-timate that Butler is around 3 million. That brings us to 24 million. Two to go. I'm positive that they'd want the Bulls' pick. I'd rather trade both Bulls' first rounders (2014 and 2015) if that's possible. I know there's a league rule about dealing successive first round picks, but I don't know if it applies when you also have other teams' first round picks. If it does, then keep the 2015 pick and send them the pick they got for Deng (the Kings' pick, I believe, protected this year but not next?). I think all the Bulls have to do is find another million dollars in salary to deal. I'm sure it could be done. That's if the Bulls have to match 26 million. If it's 23 million, it's a little easier.
The key is Boozer. Does he work for the Knicks, who will also have Stoudamire under contract? I think it does. First, Boozer is expiring after next season. Second, Boozer is a good player (if not a great player, and if not worth the big contract the Bulls gave him), and Stoudamire can swing between center and power forward. Butler replaces Anthony, and Hinrich gives them veteran leadership for a couple of years. Or Dunleavy gives them a year of a solid small forward and three point shooter. And they get some young players with not-too-low draft picks. Would that work for someone like Phil Jackson and the Knicks?
So is this likely? I doubt it. Like I said earlier, I'd bet that Anthony will stay in New York and the Bulls will have to find somewhere else to spend the money. Maybe they don't amnesty Boozer, maybe they bring Mirotic over and draft a couple of more pieces and see what they have in Rose. Maybe they make a run at Paul Pierce or something like that. There are options.
But none of those options lead to a Bulls championship next year, in my opinion. The only scenario where I see a championship in the picture is one where they get Carmelo Anthony.
*****
You can find my short story NIGHT FAMILY on Amazon!
You can also find another of my short stories DEAD OR ALIVE on Amazon!
*****
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