So, Cubs nation is beside itself with enthusiasm about the team's hiring of Theo Epstein away from the Red Sox. Epstein comes aboard as team president in charge of baseball operations, and will apparently hire a couple of guys from the Padres organization, GM Jed Hoyer and an assistant GM, both of whom have worked with him in Boston.
Theo has a big job ahead of him. He has to turn around the direction of this entire franchise. Even when they were winning, it felt like a fluke. It felt like the team was an injury or a bad year by a player or two away from falling from being competitive to being...well, being what they were last year. Almost a joke.
And that was pretty close to the truth.
I'm taking this whole thing with a grain of salt. I'm old enough to remember the enthusiasm around the hiring of Andy MacPhail, who, like Epstein, helped to build winners with the Twins. MacPhail was unable to get it done here, and his successor, Jim Hendry, did good things, but also created a mess with some of the big contracts he gave out. Whether that was his fault or he acted on a directive from higher-ups, he'll get the blame.
Where Hendry's regime, and Ed Lynch's and MacPhail's tenures before him, failed, in my humble opinion, was in their player development. Either they've failed with their player evaluation or they've failed with their development process, but for some reason the Cubs have not produced impact major leaguers at the positions.
(Yes, it's possible that Starlin Castro might be an impact player. But at 21, it's hard to not see the flaws in his game. Yes, he might correct them, but apparently he was allowed to develop with these flaws through his years in the Cubs' instructional system.)
Castro notwithstanding, there just haven't been enough impact players, either pitchers or hitters. With respect to hitters, "not enough" means virtually none until Castro.
Until Epstein corrects this, any success the team has is going to feel like a fluke again.
Theo addressed this as an idea, that a team would have solid prospects coming through the system at every position, so that they would never have to sign a free agent out of desperation. That seems like a solid goal to me, the kind of goal that would put this team on a course to win a whole lot more than it loses. If they are competitive every year, if they are almost always in the hunt for a playoff spot, and are actually in the playoffs 7 out of every 10 years, eventually, just by things falling their way, they'll probably get to and probably even WIN a World Series.
I am talking about "in my lifetime". I'd really love to see that.
So....guarded optimism from this corner. And a lot of wishful thinking...
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Monday, August 1, 2011
Cubs Farm System Inadequate?
Let me rant a bit more about the Cubs' minor leagues. I continue to hear people on talk radio, both callers and hosts, suggesting that the Cubs' minor leagues is in good shape and is the one bright spot in this organization.
I disagree.
If I understand correctly, the top non-pitching prospects in the system include DJ LeMahieu, Ryan Flaherty, Brett Jackson, Matt Sczur, Welington Castillo, Reggie Golden and the draft pick from this year (Jose Baez?). Already in the majors are young players Tyler Colvin, Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, and Tony Campana.
Aside from Castro, who, as a shortstop, hits really well with outstanding range and a great arm and who MIGHT be a really good player (he currently looks pretty good), no one screams out "future all-star" from that crew.
No I don't know what Baez, Golden or Sczur will do as they move up the ladder. Maybe they'll make quantum leaps as they move up and go from good to really good to great. Perhaps one or all of them becomes the major league star whose production has so far eluded the Cubs. But you just can't count on it.
Knowing that the Cubs have few outstanding, impact-type players in their system, what did they do this year? They drafted a high school player.
Drafting these youngsters is all well and good. But for this team, at this time, it sort of smacks of self-preservation. Why would I say this? After all, if you want to show production, you might be inclined to draft a college player who is really good. Picking as high as the Cubs picked this year, there should have been one or two of those types available. There usually are.
So why do I say that drafting from high school could be from self-preservation? Because you cannot evaluate these kids for at least 3 or 4 years, not really. So you can't say that the pick is a failure. Again.
All you have to do is look at Josh Vitters. Baseball America touted him as the best prep hitter in that draft. But he isn't showing much in the minors; certainly not enough to count on him in the majors next year. He looked good his first couple years in rookie, short season, low-A ball, wherever he played. But now, several years later, it's sort of looking like another busted pick.
Will the HS kid be Josh Vitters or will he be Joe Mauer? You don't know. The time frame for evaluating a HS player is longer than it is for an older college player. So you can't say Tim Wilken failed again.
Wilken's picks so far in the first round are underwhelming. Colvin showed flashes in the majors, but he's a flawed player anyway. Since then, we don't know about the pitcher he took from the college ranks last year (Hayden Simpson) or any others. So far it's not inspiring me as a somewhat casual watcher of the Cubs' farm system.
So it's a couple more years before we can really evaluate the latest first rounder of the Cubs. A couple more years before we can really evaluate the 2011 draft, and evaluate Tim Wilken.
Oh well.
*****
I disagree.
If I understand correctly, the top non-pitching prospects in the system include DJ LeMahieu, Ryan Flaherty, Brett Jackson, Matt Sczur, Welington Castillo, Reggie Golden and the draft pick from this year (Jose Baez?). Already in the majors are young players Tyler Colvin, Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, and Tony Campana.
Aside from Castro, who, as a shortstop, hits really well with outstanding range and a great arm and who MIGHT be a really good player (he currently looks pretty good), no one screams out "future all-star" from that crew.
No I don't know what Baez, Golden or Sczur will do as they move up the ladder. Maybe they'll make quantum leaps as they move up and go from good to really good to great. Perhaps one or all of them becomes the major league star whose production has so far eluded the Cubs. But you just can't count on it.
Knowing that the Cubs have few outstanding, impact-type players in their system, what did they do this year? They drafted a high school player.
Drafting these youngsters is all well and good. But for this team, at this time, it sort of smacks of self-preservation. Why would I say this? After all, if you want to show production, you might be inclined to draft a college player who is really good. Picking as high as the Cubs picked this year, there should have been one or two of those types available. There usually are.
So why do I say that drafting from high school could be from self-preservation? Because you cannot evaluate these kids for at least 3 or 4 years, not really. So you can't say that the pick is a failure. Again.
All you have to do is look at Josh Vitters. Baseball America touted him as the best prep hitter in that draft. But he isn't showing much in the minors; certainly not enough to count on him in the majors next year. He looked good his first couple years in rookie, short season, low-A ball, wherever he played. But now, several years later, it's sort of looking like another busted pick.
Will the HS kid be Josh Vitters or will he be Joe Mauer? You don't know. The time frame for evaluating a HS player is longer than it is for an older college player. So you can't say Tim Wilken failed again.
Wilken's picks so far in the first round are underwhelming. Colvin showed flashes in the majors, but he's a flawed player anyway. Since then, we don't know about the pitcher he took from the college ranks last year (Hayden Simpson) or any others. So far it's not inspiring me as a somewhat casual watcher of the Cubs' farm system.
So it's a couple more years before we can really evaluate the latest first rounder of the Cubs. A couple more years before we can really evaluate the 2011 draft, and evaluate Tim Wilken.
Oh well.
*****
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Disgusted with the Cubs
Been a while since I've posted here. Part of that was the hangover from the Bulls' championship run. Part was the fact that the Hawks were out early, although the team that oustered them went on to the league finals (only to lose to Boston). And part was the lackluster performance of our baseball teams.
The Cubs have fallen apart. My preseason prediction was that they should be very competitive in the division. On paper, they looked to have a good rotation, a solid bullpen, a decent bench and a reasonably good everyday lineup.
It hasn't worked out that way. Starters have been injured, veterans look like they're disinterested, and the bullpen has been inconsistent bordering on ineffective. Quade looks lost as a manager, and Hendry and the new owner, Tom Ricketts, just keep spewing out the same "We'll be fine" type of lines.
They're not fine. And in my opinion, it all goes back to their farm system. I listen to callers on talk radio suggesting that one of the bright spots of this organization is their farm system. Well, I disagree. It's a lowlight. It's underwhelming. There is not a single guy in that system that doesn't have a question mark attached to his future status.
You can say that's true of all systems, and it is. But for the Cubs, there really is no one name that you say, "this guy has a chance to be a Hall-of-Fame quality major league star." Starlin Castro is the sole bright spot, and many experts seem to think he won't end up as a shortstop in the majors.
Darwin Barney, you say? Nice player. I like him. But he's a middle of the road ballplayer. Hard worker, grind-it-out type. Every team needs some guys like him. But he's not an impact player. If Barney goes down, the Cubs replace him with, well, any number of names.
Brett Jackson? Big question marks. Josh Vitters? Ditto. Tyler Colvin? Regressed significantly after his harrowing injury last year. No guys that make you the fan go, "Now THERE'S an impact player."
So why is this significant now? It's significant because they NEVER have developed an impact position player in the last 20 or maybe 30 years. Dunston and Grace were good quality major leaguers, but they aren't Hall-of-Fame quality stars. This failure has caused them to dive into free agency, overpaying for guys like Soriano and Fukudome and others. They've done okay with trades, getting ARam and DLee in their prime, but that prime is passed now. And ARam, Dempster, Zambrano, Soriano and Fukudome cause this team to not be able to spend money on free agents NOW, when they need new blood. The Cubs are destined to be mediocre or worse for a couple years because of it.
Tom Ricketts had better be careful or he'll lose a generation of Cubs fans. My kids don't care if they watch or now right now. A lot of that comes from me, since I don't really care if I watch this team either.
I hope this team can find some direction in the next few months, and start going in that direction.
*****
The Cubs have fallen apart. My preseason prediction was that they should be very competitive in the division. On paper, they looked to have a good rotation, a solid bullpen, a decent bench and a reasonably good everyday lineup.
It hasn't worked out that way. Starters have been injured, veterans look like they're disinterested, and the bullpen has been inconsistent bordering on ineffective. Quade looks lost as a manager, and Hendry and the new owner, Tom Ricketts, just keep spewing out the same "We'll be fine" type of lines.
They're not fine. And in my opinion, it all goes back to their farm system. I listen to callers on talk radio suggesting that one of the bright spots of this organization is their farm system. Well, I disagree. It's a lowlight. It's underwhelming. There is not a single guy in that system that doesn't have a question mark attached to his future status.
You can say that's true of all systems, and it is. But for the Cubs, there really is no one name that you say, "this guy has a chance to be a Hall-of-Fame quality major league star." Starlin Castro is the sole bright spot, and many experts seem to think he won't end up as a shortstop in the majors.
Darwin Barney, you say? Nice player. I like him. But he's a middle of the road ballplayer. Hard worker, grind-it-out type. Every team needs some guys like him. But he's not an impact player. If Barney goes down, the Cubs replace him with, well, any number of names.
Brett Jackson? Big question marks. Josh Vitters? Ditto. Tyler Colvin? Regressed significantly after his harrowing injury last year. No guys that make you the fan go, "Now THERE'S an impact player."
So why is this significant now? It's significant because they NEVER have developed an impact position player in the last 20 or maybe 30 years. Dunston and Grace were good quality major leaguers, but they aren't Hall-of-Fame quality stars. This failure has caused them to dive into free agency, overpaying for guys like Soriano and Fukudome and others. They've done okay with trades, getting ARam and DLee in their prime, but that prime is passed now. And ARam, Dempster, Zambrano, Soriano and Fukudome cause this team to not be able to spend money on free agents NOW, when they need new blood. The Cubs are destined to be mediocre or worse for a couple years because of it.
Tom Ricketts had better be careful or he'll lose a generation of Cubs fans. My kids don't care if they watch or now right now. A lot of that comes from me, since I don't really care if I watch this team either.
I hope this team can find some direction in the next few months, and start going in that direction.
*****
Friday, May 27, 2011
Oh, well...
...No more Bulls games to worry about. It was an exciting run.
Should be one more game. I'm not one to complain about refs changing the outcome of the game. But I'll complain about this one. I believe there is no way Miami comes back from the 4th quarter deficit with only 2 or 3 minutes remaining without an assist from the refs. The Bulls were backing off on defense, allowing James open looks at threes, because if they got near him they seemed to get called for fouls. Meanwhile, the Heat had their way with the Bulls defensively. No calls. The excessive T's made me think someone had it in for the Bulls in this game. In this case it manifested with the disparity in foul calls late in the fourth, allowing Miami to whittle points off the lead with the clock stopped.
Not to take anything away from James' greatness. He still had to hit every shot to win, and he did.
I didn't think the Bulls could win the series, but I do think they should have won last night's game, and it sort of leaves a sour taste in my mouth...
*****
Should be one more game. I'm not one to complain about refs changing the outcome of the game. But I'll complain about this one. I believe there is no way Miami comes back from the 4th quarter deficit with only 2 or 3 minutes remaining without an assist from the refs. The Bulls were backing off on defense, allowing James open looks at threes, because if they got near him they seemed to get called for fouls. Meanwhile, the Heat had their way with the Bulls defensively. No calls. The excessive T's made me think someone had it in for the Bulls in this game. In this case it manifested with the disparity in foul calls late in the fourth, allowing Miami to whittle points off the lead with the clock stopped.
Not to take anything away from James' greatness. He still had to hit every shot to win, and he did.
I didn't think the Bulls could win the series, but I do think they should have won last night's game, and it sort of leaves a sour taste in my mouth...
*****
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Not looking good...
No, I'm not talking about the Cubs or the White Sox, though I could be.
Things aren't looking good for the Bulls in this best of 7 series with the Heat. Down 3-1 and going back to Chicago, the Bulls would have to win the next three. We haven't seen much evidence that they can do this.
Oh, they've been in the games, but at the end it seems the Heat just have too much. Too much talent. Too much luck. Too much star power.
I think the ball has bounced their way a lot in this series. Their bench players, the few that they use, at least, have made contributions. Hit big shots when needed. Gotten to rebounds and loose balls. Been effective when the superstars aren't on the floor. They've been good. And shots - well, shots have went down for them.
The Bulls on the other hand have had tons of problems with shots. Layups aren't dropping, nor are jump shots from all ranges. Rose's drives to the basket have not been resulting in enough points or free throws. The ball too often seems to land in the hands of Heat rebounders, and not Noah, Boozer, Gibson or whoever.
Hopefully the Bulls get at least one win out of the next three. It would have to be tomorrow night, since a loss then ends the series.
Keeping fingers and toes crossed and hoping for better bounces as well as better play.
*****
Things aren't looking good for the Bulls in this best of 7 series with the Heat. Down 3-1 and going back to Chicago, the Bulls would have to win the next three. We haven't seen much evidence that they can do this.
Oh, they've been in the games, but at the end it seems the Heat just have too much. Too much talent. Too much luck. Too much star power.
I think the ball has bounced their way a lot in this series. Their bench players, the few that they use, at least, have made contributions. Hit big shots when needed. Gotten to rebounds and loose balls. Been effective when the superstars aren't on the floor. They've been good. And shots - well, shots have went down for them.
The Bulls on the other hand have had tons of problems with shots. Layups aren't dropping, nor are jump shots from all ranges. Rose's drives to the basket have not been resulting in enough points or free throws. The ball too often seems to land in the hands of Heat rebounders, and not Noah, Boozer, Gibson or whoever.
Hopefully the Bulls get at least one win out of the next three. It would have to be tomorrow night, since a loss then ends the series.
Keeping fingers and toes crossed and hoping for better bounces as well as better play.
*****
Monday, May 23, 2011
Bulls vs Heat
I've been neglecting this blog for a long time now (partly because I see no evidence that anyone is reading it). Long enough to not comment on the Bulls' playoff run up until now.
The Bulls had trouble with the Pacers. Oh, they put them away in 5 games, but all but maybe one of those games were hard fought battles where Rose simply took over at the end and willed the Bulls to victory.
Similar situation with the Hawks. Took them 6 games, I believe, to put the Hawks away, and again, in all but maybe 2, the contests were hard fought and close. I blamed it on matchup problems. I felt that the Pacers, with their length, and the Hawks, with their physical frontcourt and their good defensive guards, presented problems for the Bulls up front and for their shooters. I thought that, come Miami, they would be able to win those matchups. I thought the Bulls would be stronger than the Heat at center and fairly even at power forward. And I thought their shooters, especially Korver, would be able to can some jumpers.
Instead, the Heat's future Hall of Famers have been running over the Bulls in games 2and 3. And Korver and others have been unable to hit the jump shots, whether they be open or contested. And the Bulls are NOT dominating up front. Not at all. After game 1, the Bulls have not played well. Miami has a great defense, to be certain. And it looks to me like the refs are giving the Heat an assist with the way they're calling the game. They're taking away Rose's (and Wade's) ability to drive and get fouled or get to the rim. In the Heat's case, this doesn't affect them so much. They still have Lebron doing his thing, and they have Bosh being a huge factor. And Haslem has come in and given them quality minutes off the bench, negating some of the Bulls' supposed advantage in that department. The refs are also allowing Miami to pack the lane and haven't called a single defensive 3 seconds on them, far as I've noticed, this series.
I think the Bulls could still pull out this series, but game 4 has become a must-win for them. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that they can do it...
*****
The Bulls had trouble with the Pacers. Oh, they put them away in 5 games, but all but maybe one of those games were hard fought battles where Rose simply took over at the end and willed the Bulls to victory.
Similar situation with the Hawks. Took them 6 games, I believe, to put the Hawks away, and again, in all but maybe 2, the contests were hard fought and close. I blamed it on matchup problems. I felt that the Pacers, with their length, and the Hawks, with their physical frontcourt and their good defensive guards, presented problems for the Bulls up front and for their shooters. I thought that, come Miami, they would be able to win those matchups. I thought the Bulls would be stronger than the Heat at center and fairly even at power forward. And I thought their shooters, especially Korver, would be able to can some jumpers.
Instead, the Heat's future Hall of Famers have been running over the Bulls in games 2and 3. And Korver and others have been unable to hit the jump shots, whether they be open or contested. And the Bulls are NOT dominating up front. Not at all. After game 1, the Bulls have not played well. Miami has a great defense, to be certain. And it looks to me like the refs are giving the Heat an assist with the way they're calling the game. They're taking away Rose's (and Wade's) ability to drive and get fouled or get to the rim. In the Heat's case, this doesn't affect them so much. They still have Lebron doing his thing, and they have Bosh being a huge factor. And Haslem has come in and given them quality minutes off the bench, negating some of the Bulls' supposed advantage in that department. The refs are also allowing Miami to pack the lane and haven't called a single defensive 3 seconds on them, far as I've noticed, this series.
I think the Bulls could still pull out this series, but game 4 has become a must-win for them. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that they can do it...
*****
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Cubs and Bulls
The Cubs open the season on April 1st against the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's one of those years when a lot of us don't expect much from our team. And perhaps that bodes well for the Cubs - it's in years like this that no one is expecting much that the Cubs tend to do better.
The key for them is their pitchers. I mean, we know what we're getting with Dempster and with Randy Wells. I feel that both of them will do what they are capable of. Wells could be one of the better 4th starters in the league, and Dempster, while he is the opening day pitcher, is really more of a middle of the rotation type on a really good team.
That's where Dempster may end up, because there are two higher end talents in this rotation - Carlos Zambrano and Matt Garza. Both have the arms and the "stuff" to be top of the rotation types. Ideally they would be one and two in a good rotation. If they pitch up to their capabilities, and keep their heads in the game, they'll help make up a very good rotation.
The fifth starter appears to be Andrew Cashner, a young guy who was a number 1 draft pick of the Cubs only a few years back. He's got "stuff" and talent, too, and could pitch like a top of the rotation guy. Trouble is, as a virtual rookie, he is a question mark and could easily go the other way, too. In that case, I do believe the Cubs have options with several young players who showed that they could pitch in the majors last year.
The Cubs' bullpen should be okay, with Marmol, Wood and Marshall holding down the back end, and Samarzidja, Grabow and one other (Looper? Wellemayer?) filling out the pen. Bullpens are always a bit of a crapshoot, but the Cubs look solid enough there. Offensively, there are questions. But if Soriano can come back toward his career norms, Ramirez can bounce back in a contract year, and Pena can do something other than what he did last year and play good defense, they should be fine. I'm good with Soto, Castro, Colvin and Barney/Baker (at second), and Byrd in CF for now. Should be okay. We'll see what happens.
*****
The Bulls got beat by the Sixers, then dominated the T-wolves last night. Boozer had a great game without Noah on the floor, and after the game, Rose mentioned (in response to a question from a reporter) that he notices Boozer to be more aggressive when Noah isn't on the floor. It's a dilemma that the Bulls will need to figure out. We know Boozer isn't the greatest defensive power forward; he needs to be solid on the offensive end. It'd be nice if the Bulls could work it out over the course of the next couple weeks, before the playoffs. Noah, though, looks like he might be out for another couple games.
Maybe the answer is to play Noah with the second unit? Or Boozer with the second unit? Start him, play him for 3 minutes, sit him for Gibson, then bring him back in when Noah goes out. Play him with Thomas or Asik. Gibson is better defensively, but does not offer the offensive weapons that Boozer offers. The Bulls back in the Jordan years always used to try to establish the post game right off the bat, whether it was Cartwright or Longley starting. Maybe the reverse needs to be done. Pull Noah after a few minutes, and establish Boozer in the post right away. Then bring Noah in with the second unit. I don't know...
Anyway, it looks like the Bulls stand a real chance of going far in the playoffs. I'm totally rooting for them!!!
*****
The key for them is their pitchers. I mean, we know what we're getting with Dempster and with Randy Wells. I feel that both of them will do what they are capable of. Wells could be one of the better 4th starters in the league, and Dempster, while he is the opening day pitcher, is really more of a middle of the rotation type on a really good team.
That's where Dempster may end up, because there are two higher end talents in this rotation - Carlos Zambrano and Matt Garza. Both have the arms and the "stuff" to be top of the rotation types. Ideally they would be one and two in a good rotation. If they pitch up to their capabilities, and keep their heads in the game, they'll help make up a very good rotation.
The fifth starter appears to be Andrew Cashner, a young guy who was a number 1 draft pick of the Cubs only a few years back. He's got "stuff" and talent, too, and could pitch like a top of the rotation guy. Trouble is, as a virtual rookie, he is a question mark and could easily go the other way, too. In that case, I do believe the Cubs have options with several young players who showed that they could pitch in the majors last year.
The Cubs' bullpen should be okay, with Marmol, Wood and Marshall holding down the back end, and Samarzidja, Grabow and one other (Looper? Wellemayer?) filling out the pen. Bullpens are always a bit of a crapshoot, but the Cubs look solid enough there. Offensively, there are questions. But if Soriano can come back toward his career norms, Ramirez can bounce back in a contract year, and Pena can do something other than what he did last year and play good defense, they should be fine. I'm good with Soto, Castro, Colvin and Barney/Baker (at second), and Byrd in CF for now. Should be okay. We'll see what happens.
*****
The Bulls got beat by the Sixers, then dominated the T-wolves last night. Boozer had a great game without Noah on the floor, and after the game, Rose mentioned (in response to a question from a reporter) that he notices Boozer to be more aggressive when Noah isn't on the floor. It's a dilemma that the Bulls will need to figure out. We know Boozer isn't the greatest defensive power forward; he needs to be solid on the offensive end. It'd be nice if the Bulls could work it out over the course of the next couple weeks, before the playoffs. Noah, though, looks like he might be out for another couple games.
Maybe the answer is to play Noah with the second unit? Or Boozer with the second unit? Start him, play him for 3 minutes, sit him for Gibson, then bring him back in when Noah goes out. Play him with Thomas or Asik. Gibson is better defensively, but does not offer the offensive weapons that Boozer offers. The Bulls back in the Jordan years always used to try to establish the post game right off the bat, whether it was Cartwright or Longley starting. Maybe the reverse needs to be done. Pull Noah after a few minutes, and establish Boozer in the post right away. Then bring Noah in with the second unit. I don't know...
Anyway, it looks like the Bulls stand a real chance of going far in the playoffs. I'm totally rooting for them!!!
*****
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