Cubs predictions

I picked up two baseball magazines yesterday, wanting to see what they had to say about our Chicago teams. I was a faithful reader of Street and Smith's, and had those yearbooks going back to something like 1972, but I can't find them anymore. (Are they out of business?)

Anyway, Athlon Sports yearbook has the Cubs third behind the Cardinals and the Brewers, in the NL Central. They have the White Sox second behind Minnesota in the AL Cental.

Lindy's Sports yearbook has both Chicago teams second in their divisions, behind the Cards and the Twins respectively.

I felt that Athlon had a bit of a bias against the Cubs, placing Derrick Lee at the bottom of the second tier of major league first baggers (13th overall), for their fantasy projections. They admit that his numbers from last year would place him firmly in their so-called "first tier" players, but that his age should lead to diminished expectations. Aramis Ramirez heads up the second tier of third baemen, and then admit that it is because of his injury filled 2009 season that he's here. Stil I can't fault them ranking him as the fifth best third baseman in the majors...that sounds about right.

They have Ted Lilly ranked as the 30th best starter in MLB, placing him in the middle of the tier 3 guys, but admit that he would be higher, solidly tier 2, if he wasn't coming off shoulder surgery. The surprising thing to me was that they rank Carlos Zambrano near the bottom of the tier 3 guys, at number 46. Okay, the guy has been a head case in the past, but his numbers support him being better than this, I believe. Ryan Dempster is at 63, in the middle of the tier 4 guys. And Randy Wells is a tier 5 guy, at 89.

Then again, they rank Mark Buehrle, who will start the season on opening day for the Sox, as the 38th best starter, surpassed on his own team by Jake Peavy, John Danks and Gavin Floyd. I understand these are fantasy rankings, and that they don't necessarily relate to how valuable these guys are to their teams, but I still think Zambrano should be higher up than 46.

Anyway, spring training is in full swing and it promises to be an interesting season on both sides of town.

Bulls' state for Free Agents...

So how did the trades of Salmons and Thomas affect the Bulls for this summer's free agent frenzy?

As previously noted, the trade of Salmons removes the possibility of the player exercising his 5.8 million dollar option. Thomas's trade leaves the Bulls with an extra first round pick in the future, and no decision to be made at the end of the season regarding his status, as to whether he should be resigned or not.

This leaves the Bulls with about 21 million dollars under the cap, possibly a little less. (They have about 32 million dollars committed to six players - Hinrich, Deng, Rose, Noah, Gibson and James Johnson, last year's other first round pick. The best case scenario sees the cap at about 53 million dollars.) That's enough for one maximum contract of 16.5 million dollars. They will also have a draft pick in the 1-1.5 million dollar range. (Let's assume about 1 million here.) That leaves 3.5 million to fill four roster spots.

I believe the minimum salary is around 500 thousand a year, if you take three of those, you come up with about 2 million left for one middlin' veteran.

Let's say that the veteran they pursue is Chris Bosh, and that they are successful in getting him. Next year's Bulls team would look something like this: Starting lineup would be Noah, Bosh, Deng, Rose and Hinrich. Taj Gibson and James Johnson would have to come off the bench, along with their first round pick next year. The other four spots will be taken up with perhaps a second round pick and two more minimum salary guys, and then a veteran player, maybe even Flip Murray or someone of that ilk.

Is that a good enough team to compete in the East? Well, it certainly is on the starting 5. But there isn't much depth on this team.

It will be an interesting summer.

Chicago sports and Tiger

So I'm on my way to work this morning, and I flip on my radio, tuned to WSCR. Before 9, I listen to Mike Mulligan (a Loyola Chicago grad, just like me!) and Brian Hanley, because WMVP, ESPN's Chicago affiliate, carries a nationally syndicated show called Mike and Mike (which is good, but not Chicago focused - like most ESPN stuff, it's mostly concerned with East Coast stuff and big stories).

Wanting to get my fix of Chicago sports news, because, after all, the Bulls made two deals yesterday and I wanted to hear about how this affects their offseason free agent shopping. Wanted to hear how it might affect their team now. What these guys thought about Hakeem Warrick and Flip Murray and Acie Law and Joe Alexander, because the truth is I don't know that much about them yet.

And all I hear is Tiger Woods.

So I flip over to the national show on ESPN1000, and of course, it's the same crap over there.

Okay, I get it. The guy's probably the best golfer ever. He got caught after having numerous extra-marital affairs. Some sponsors dropped him, and he hasn't been back on the links yet. That's the story. The rest of this - gossip. Save it for OK Magazine, or US, or even the Enquirer. I've heard enough.

Please just give me Chicago sports talk again. Obviously some people are interested in this story, because some people were calling into Mully and Hanley, but I'm not. I wanted info on the Bulls, the Cubs, the White Sox, the Hawks, the Olympians, and even the Bears.

Didn't get a word of it.

Thomas, Salmons traded

The Bulls have apparently finished up two draft deadline deals, trading John Salmons to Milwaukee for two expiring contracts, Hakim Warrick and Joe Alexander. The Bucks will also have the right to swap first round draft position with the Bulls in the 2010 college draft (unless the pick is in the top ten), and they receive two second round picks.

In a separate deal, Tyrus Thomas was dealt to the Charlotte Bobcats for the expiring contracts of Acie Law and Flip Murray. The Bulls also receive a future, protected first round pick from the Bobcats.

The Salmons deal makes the Bulls players for one max-contract guy, and I'm sure they'll be aiming at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudamire. Salmons had the right to "opt in" for 5.8 million dollars in 2010/2011, which would have left the Bulls either needing to renounce Thomas or not be able to offer a max contract.

The Thomas deal makes less sense. The Bobcats apparently have no first round pick in the 2010 draft, so the protected pick probably will be a 2011 pick. Since the Bulls no longer needed to renounce Thomas to get enough under the cap for a max guy, I don't quite see the urgency in terms of the cap. They could decide at the end of the year what to do with him. And the draft pick is not going to help this year, unless they use it to trade for another pick.

The only other thing is that perhaps the Bulls just want to get rid of Thomas' attitude and inconsistency. I suppose that's a good reason for moving him, though I would have thought he would have more value than he apparently did.

We'll see what the future brings for this franchise.

Black Hawk Talk...

I have to admit that I don't know much about hockey. The Black Hawks have been so irrelevant in Chicago that I lost interest.

But that isn't really much of an excuse either. The truth is, I lost interest a long time ago. I got interested in college basketball, then both college and pro basketball, then concentrated on the Bulls as they got good in the early nineties thanks to a certain guy with the initials M.J. A lot of my friends were big football fans, and when the Bears won the Super Bowl in 1985, I started following them more. And of course, there was always baseball, and the Cubs.

I used to watch hockey in my youth, when it was Bobby Hull and Stan Mikita, Cliff Korral (sp?) and Keith Magnussen and Tony Esposito. I was dimly aware of the team when they had Jeremy Roenicke and Eddie Balfour, but I didn't follow the sport closely.

But guess what? We're back to having a Hawks team where I know a bunch of names! Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp and Marion Hossa, Antty Niemi (sp?) and Troy Brouer and Dave Bolland, those are names I hear often on Chicago sports chat, and I recognize immediately now.

Maybe these guys are relevant again. They are certainly GOOD. That's good to see.

*****

Derrick Rose injury!

I wasn't able to watch the game last night versus Orlando, but I saw the highlights, and was dismayed to watch Derrick Rose take a hard foul as he drove to the basket from Dwight Howard. He went down and did not return to the game.

Bulls fans everywhere were in full panic mode this morning while speculating on what could be the worst case scenarios. The Bulls' staff announced this morning that while they weren't ruling out a fracture, it was very unlikely, and it appeared to be a bone bruise.

Later in the day, discussion centered on whether Rose should play in the All Star game this weekend, with most weighing in that he should not be allowed to play. Too much is riding on Rose's continued health; he looks like he might be a dominant guard in the league, maybe before this season is over.

You hate to tell a kid that he can't go to his first All Star game, even though you know he'll probably have many more chances to experience the event. Were I advising the Bulls, I think I'd suggest that he be allowed to go, to suit up, but that his play be limited, that is, if Rose himself still wants to go or feels good enough to play. He has to understand that the Bulls' future is on his shoulders, and he needs to do everything in his power to stay healthy.

*****

Bulls' Forward Tyrus Thomas blows up

Old news by now, but Bulls forward Tyrus Thomas was suspended for one game for cussing out his coach, Vinnie Del Negro, behind closed doors. Apparently Thomas was upset that he isn't starting. He has some legitimate beefs. He seems to have lost his starting role due to injury. His statistics are better than his replacement, though they are mostly logged against second teamers. And he is a very athletic shot blocker and since he's returned from the injured list, the Bulls have played better and won more.

On the other hand, Tyrus looks to be two different players...or should I say indifferent? At times he harnesses all that athletic ability and puts together dominant stretches of floor time, but at other times, "indifferent" is maybe the best way to put an attempt to describe his play. He will be in the wrong place, he won't hustle, he won't help when he should. There are times, also, where it looks like Tyrus is all about "me", when he takes ill-advised shots, makes moves for the sake of making moves, and tries to block a shot by leaving his man, who then scores easily. Maybe that should have been that he looks to be THREE different players.

He came back against the Indiana Pacers, who are not a very good team, and played well by all accounts, though I didn't see the game. He started, too, and that of course led to speculation as to who is calling the shots here.

The Bulls need Tyrus to play well. They also need for their coach, who I am not too fond of, to play him and leave his apparent dislike of Tyrus out of the equation. They need these things because they probably have to trade Tyrus soon, before the deadline. He's a number 4 overall pick, traded to the Bulls for the number 2 overall pick (LaMarcus Aldridge) and someone who is forgotten by now. He can be an expiring contract if the Bulls renounce his rights this offseason; he would be a restricted free agent if they don't. But the Bulls really don't want to get nothing out of that draft except for cap space, I believe. They want to get something of value for Tyrus.

I don't know if that's possible anymore, but it will be with some interest that we watch what happens with Thomas over the next couple of weeks.

*****

An Exciting Super Bowl - from a Bears fan perspective

I really enjoyed this Superbowl between the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts. Though I was rooting for the Saints, I thought the Colts would win it. Were I a betting man, I would have put money on the Colts, not the Saints. Great game, all the way through it.

But what I was thinking as I woke up this morning was that the Bears beat the Saints in 2005, on their way to the Super Bowl. And of course they lost to the Colts in the big game. Here it is, 5 years later. The Bears have not been back to the playoffs since. The Colts are almost always there, and that's got a lot to do with having Peyton Manning as their QB. And there are those Saints, a different team than the one the Bears beat, to be sure, but isn't that what forward progress is about? Changing things for the better?

The Bears, on the other hand, were nowhere near the playoffs this year. It's telling that these particular two teams are already back on top as the Bears flop around aimlessly. Their offense was dismal, and they sacrificed the offensive coaching staff, even though the front office failed to provide much of an offensive line, receivers, and staked their hopes at running back on a second year guy who may or may not be much more than servicable in the future. Yes, they went out and got the "franchise" quarterback. But it goes to show that one player doesn't make the team if he has no weapons around him.

Next year we'll be hoping that Mike Martz can right the ship offensively, and that Rod Marinelli can concentrate on the defensive schemes that coach Lovie Smith, who doubled as defensive coordinator last season, wants to run but couldn't because of his head coaching duties. Lovie doesn't like to tell anyone anything; he gave a press conference back that the beginning of the offseason that the d-coordinator would come from outside, and that he hadn't considered Marinelli for the position, but then after they announce that Marinelli will in fact take that job, he said he has been envisioning him in that role all along. It's pretty close to lying outright about his intentions, but I guess if he's comfortable with the lying, we shouldn't worry about it all that much.

Now comes the hard work of finding some players for this team. With no draft picks in the first three rounds (I think they gave up their third round pick this year for Cutler), it's going to be a tough job.

Bulls trade rumor

This trade rumor is a couple of days old now. It's been going around that the Bulls and Celtics might be discussing a deal for Ray Allen and his 19+ million dollar expiring contract. The names being suggested for the Bulls to send to the Celtics are Kirk Hinrich and John Salmons.

If I'm the Bulls I do it. I've read assertions that they'll be better (because Ray Allen is a big two guard who can shoot the lights out) and that they'll be worse (because Ray Allen can't defend as well as Hinrich and can't back up the point - he can pretty much play only one position at this point in his career, and his age is catching up with him this year).

But I suppose that does not matter in the end. This Bulls team is not a championship team. The regret I'd have with dealing Hinrich is that I think he could be an important part of a championship team, as a third combo guard. But I wouldn't hesitate to sacrifice him for that sort of cap space. Hinrich is, I believe, signed through 2012, and his yearly dollar amount decreases (instead of increasing) each year. Salmons has an opt-out for next summer which the Bulls probably hope he exercises, but, with the way he's playing this year, he's likely to elect to take the 6 million and stay with the Bulls. I'm sure they'd need to include some cap filler, maybe Jerome James, to get to where Allen is, salary-wise, but it does clear several million dollars that otherwise won't be going anywhere, and would likely allow the Bulls to pursue two quality free agents.

The question is why the Celtics would do this. Do they really feel that Allen's skills are dimishing so much that they need to get rid of him right now? And why not just keep him and not resign him? I don't know what the impact of the Celtics simply letting him go would be but it probably would not give them the full 19 million like it would the Bulls, since they have to match salaries in order to make the deal. And if they're going for it this year (as I'm sure they are), do they feel that Hinrich (or Salmons) provide something valuable that Allen can't provide at this point? Defense (in Hinrich's case)?

It's an interesting rumor, and if I were the Bulls GM and this is seriously on the table, I think I'd be doing it.

The Cubs 2010

I'm sure I'll write a few posts with this title. That's okay, right?

Anyway, it is looking like our Cubs team for 2010 is fairly set. The only thing that would seem to still be on the to-do list is to add a veteran arm to the rotation.

For this post, I'd like to write a bit about their apparent outfield:

In left, the 136 million (or some other obscene amount) dollar man, Alfonso Soriano. Bad year last year. He just did not perform up to his norms in any category, or so it seems without looking up his statistics. His biggest weakness at the plate is his inability to lay off pitches low and outside (WAY low and outside). In the field he just appears to take bad routes and get bad jumps, but he makes up for some of that with athleticism and speed. I get the impression that he's afraid of the wall out there, as he seems tentative on the hard-hit deep liners that are catchable.

Soriano's going to strike out more than his share, and he's going to make some boneheaded plays in left, but if he's feeling okay, he should hit better than last year, and hopefully for more power. I don't think he's their leadoff man this year, but who knows what Lou might end up doing? His best position (aside from DH, but this is the NL) is where he is - left field.

In right field, it looks like a platoon with lefty Kosuke Fukudome and righty Xavier Nady. I like this situation; it could be very prductive. Fukudome had a pretty fair year last year. Did he earn his 12+ million? Maybe not, but he wasn't bad either. His OBP was decent, and he played decent defense in center. He's moving back to right, and probably will bat 2nd or 7th. (It would make sense to lead him off, but I can't see Lou doing that.)

Nady is a guy I've always liked, from when he was drafted (by San Diego, I think) and on to his days in Pittsburgh. He was injured last year, and had Tommy John surgery to fix him up. He's not a pitcher, so I don't know how much it will affect him. I suspect he'll be okay this year. He's got a good bat and a decent glove in right.

In center the newly signed Marlon Byrd takes over. Byrd hit for some power last year in Texas, and has a little speed. When they first signed him, I thought he would lead off, but I'm not sure he's cut out to do that nowadays. I don't know yet where they plan to bat him, but he should be an improvement over Bradley in terms of demeanor if nothing else.

Reserves (probably spending the year at Iowa) will include Sam Fuld and Tyler Colvin. Colvin is the former first round pick (Tim Wilken's first as the guy in charge of the amateur draft) who started out great but has tailed off in recent years. He's had good years, but it seems they've usually come after repeating a level. I'm interested to see what he can do, but not so much this year.

Fuld is a sparkplug type, an all out player who will crash into walls and dive to make plays, leg out hits and be a bit of a pest on the bases. He might be a good 5th outfielder when they need one of them.

It isn't the greatest outfield in the world, but it's decent and uncontroversial. It's also highly paid, thanks to Soriano and Fukudome. But it isn't a weak spot exactly. I don't mind them going to battle with these guys.

*****

Let's talk Chicago sports...

Being from the Chicago area, I love my Chicago sports teams. I admit, however, that most of my passion is reserved for the Cubs and the Bulls, though I'm interested also in the White Sox and the Bears. I'm excited about the Black Hawks this year, but I can't say I know much about hockey, so I won't pretend to write on that subject with any authority.

I also like following a few college teams, namely, my alma mater, the Loyola Ramblers, and my second alma mater, the U.I.C. Flames. My interest in these college sports is pretty much limited to basketball, however.

From time to time I may have a comment or two about one of the local minor league teams, especially the Joliet Jackhammers. While I am no longer a season ticket holder, I follow them loosely, and maybe a little more intensity if they do well.

Mostly I figure this blog will be my opinions and analysis about baseball and basketball. We'll see where it goes for now. My other blogs, Disney Fan Ramblings, and Rambler (on Journalscape) are not frequently updated, but I try. Sports might be an easier topic to write about. If you've found me here, thanks for reading!